Super El Niño Could Cause 373,000 Additional Heat-Related Deaths by March 2027

A strong El Niño event could lead to an estimated 373,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between October 2026 and March 2027. Nigeria and India face the highest projected tolls, according to the Climate Impact Lab.

The Climate Impact Lab’s updated El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker estimates that extreme heat associated with the current event could cause about 373,000 additional deaths over the next six months. These estimates compare projected deaths with levels expected during a historical baseline period. They do not represent confirmed fatalities.

Nigeria could record around 56,000 additional deaths, followed closely by India with approximately 55,000. Indonesia could face about 29,000 deaths, while Brazil could see around 19,000. The projections highlight the risks facing countries where high temperatures and limited access to cooling and healthcare increase people’s vulnerability.

Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said early forecasts of heat-related deaths could help authorities direct resources to the areas most at risk and take action to save lives.

El Niño Could Intensify Global Heat

The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is strengthening and could peak in December. The event could become one of the strongest since at least 1950. Forecasts indicate that it could continue through February 2027 and alter temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide

What Is El Niño

El Niño increases the risk of extreme heat and can contribute to droughts and floods in different regions. Its effects vary by locatio, depending on local weather patterns and other climate conditions.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern. It is warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It changes atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns across the world

The pattern typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. La Niña represents its cooler counterpart while neutral conditions occur between the two phases