Super El Niño Could Cause 451,000 Excess Heat Deaths by February 2027

A Climate Impact Lab report projects up to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide from June 2026 to February 2027. The report links the projected deaths to extreme heat associated with the current El Niño event.

A powerful El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide by February 2027, according to new projections from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.

The estimate covers the period from June 2026 to February 2027. It compares projected deaths with the number expected during a normal year. The researchers estimate about 239,000 additional deaths from September 2026 to February 2027 alone.

The report projects that global land temperatures could average 1.2°C above normal during the coming months. It also estimates a 44% increase in extremely hot days compared with a normal year.

Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan Face Higher Risks

The projected deaths are concentrated in parts of Africa, Asia and South America.

Nigeria could record about 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. Indonesia is projected to record about 19,300. Sudan is projected to record about 17,500 to 17,600. India is projected to record about 15,800. Brazil is projected to record about 13,300.

The Sahel region could see about 66,800 additional heat-related deaths during the six-month period. The researchers also project about 19,400 additional deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.

The researchers said the current El Niño could continue beyond February 2027. They also said the projected death toll could rise if unusually high temperatures persist.

The report describes the projected heat as a preview of temperatures that climate change could make more common in coming decades. Researchers said early heat warnings, cooling centres and protections for outdoor workers could help reduce the impact.